Average Mortgage Rates Still Historically Low

Average mortgage rates moved slightly higher, following U.S. Treasury Yields higher. Average 30 year mortgage rates today increased to 4.34 percent, up from last week's average 30 year rate of 4.29 percent. The six basis point increase continues the uptrend for mortgage rates this past month.

Average Mortgage RatesAlthough mortgage rates are moving higher, the increases in rates hasn't warranted all the hubbub about rates increasing. In fact, mortgage rates are not much higher than they were a year ago.

On March 6th, 2017, the average 30 year mortgage rate was 4.21 percent, only 13 basis points below the current level. Going back to August 2016, average 30 year rates were at 3.44 percent, only 90 basis points below the current level.

Loan Term
Lender
APR / Rate
Fees / Points
Payment
District Lending
NMLS #1835285
5.478%
15-Year Fixed
5.250%
$6,000
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $2,000
$3,216 /mo
PenFed Credit Union
NMLS #401822
5.642%
15-Year Fixed
5.375%
$7,000
Includes 0.750 points for $3,000
Lender Fees: $4,000
$3,242 /mo
Mutual of Omaha Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS #1025894
5.667%
15-Year Fixed
5.490%
$4,612
Includes 0.978 points for $3,912
Lender Fees: $700
$3,267 /mo
Tomo Mortgage, LLC.
NMLS #2059741
5.751%
15-Year Fixed
5.625%
$3,272
Includes 0.818 points for $3,272
Lender Fees: $0
$3,295 /mo
New American Funding, LLC.
NMLS #6606
5.890%
15-Year Fixed
5.740%
$3,876
Includes 0.969 points for $3,876
Lender Fees: $0
$3,320 /mo
District Lending
NMLS #1835285
6.368%
30-Year Fixed
6.250%
$5,000
Includes 0.750 points for $3,000
Lender Fees: $2,000
$2,463 /mo
District Lending
NMLS #1835285
6.377%
5-Year ARM
6.250%
$5,368
Includes 0.842 points for $3,368
Lender Fees: $2,000
$2,463 /mo
Tomo Mortgage, LLC.
NMLS #2059741
6.583%
30-Year Fixed
6.490%
$3,896
Includes 0.974 points for $3,896
Lender Fees: $0
$2,526 /mo
Mutual of Omaha Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS #1025894
6.713%
30-Year Fixed
6.625%
$3,656
Includes 0.739 points for $2,956
Lender Fees: $700
$2,562 /mo
PenFed Credit Union
NMLS #401822
6.770%
30-Year Fixed
6.625%
$5,995
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $1,995
$2,562 /mo
New American Funding, LLC.
NMLS #6606
6.834%
30-Year Fixed
6.740%
$3,888
Includes 0.972 points for $3,888
Lender Fees: $0
$2,592 /mo
Rocket Mortgage
NMLS #3030
6.909%
15-Year Fixed
6.750%
$4,000
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $0
$3,540 /mo
Rocket Mortgage
NMLS #3030
7.602%
30-Year Fixed
7.500%
$4,000
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $0
$2,797 /mo
Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by ICB, a division of Mortgage Research Center, NMLS #1907, Equal Housing Opportunity. Payments do not include taxes and insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and product details.

The all-time low for 30 year average mortgage rates was at 3.35 percent in December 2012. Today's average mortgage rate is only 99 basis points above the all-time low set over five years ago.

For years now, we have heard mortgage rates are moving higher and will continue to move higher. While that is technically true, the increases have been a lot lower than even the experts anticipated.

Forecasts for Average Mortgage Rates Have Been Wrong

A year ago, The Mortgage Bankers Association forecast 30 year rates to be at 4.80 percent by the 1st quarter of 2018, 46 basis points higher than the current rate. In the same forecast, the MBA had 30 year rates to be at 5.20 percent by the end of 2018.

In the most recent MBA forecast released last month, the 1st quarter 2018 forecast for average 30 year rates is at 4.4 percent. By the 4th quarter, the MBA forecasts average 30 year rates to be at 4.90 percent. When you compare the reports you can see the MBA has been lowering their forecasts.

The MBA has been lowering their forecasts for several years now. Looking back at a report from March 2014, 30 year rates were forecast to hit 5.00 percent by the end of 2014. As you know, we still haven't seen 5.00 percent rates on 30 year loans. You can see a list of mortgage rate forecasts going back to 2014 on the MBA's website: Mortgage Finance Forecasts.

To be fair to the MBA, the Federal Reserve's own economic forecasts have been wrong. The Fed's own economic forecasts have been too high and have subsequently been lowered. You can see a list of the Fed's forecasts by looking back at the FOMC Meeting Calendar.

 
Author: Brian McKay
March 7th, 2018

Explore Other Mortgage and Refinance Offers