Forecasts for Higher Mortgage Rates Were Wrong

Mortgage rates continue their downward spiral into 2015, defying predictions of higher rates. Mortgage rates moving lower in 2014 wasn't supposed to happen. Experts in the industry, including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), forecast mortgage rates to be much higher than current levels.

In March of 2014, the MBA's Mortgage Finance Forecast had 30 year mortgage rates hitting 5.00 percent by the fourth quarter of 2015 and 5.10 percent in the first quarter of 2015. Current 30 year mortgage rates are averaging 3.80 percent and the lowest 30 year rates quoted today are at 3.50 percent.

The most recent MBA forecast for rates is their December Mortgage Finance Report. Forecasts were for 30 year rates to be at 4.40 percent in the first quarter of 2015 and hit 5.00 percent in the third quarter. These forecasts will probably have to be revised down again since rates have moved lower since December.

Loan Type

Purchase Refinance with Cash out Refinance

State

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FICO Score

Superior (780-850) Exceptional (760-779) Excellent (740-759) Very Good (720-739) Good (700-719) Above Average (680-699) Average (660-679) Fair (640-659) Need Improvement (620-639) Poor (350-620)

Loan Amount

$

Points

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LTV

%

Loan Term

 15-Year Fixed  20-Year Fixed  30-Year Fixed  5-Year ARM  7-Year ARM  10-Year ARM

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The lenders whose rates and other terms appear on this chart are ICB's advertising partners. They provide their rate information to our data partner RateUpdate.com. Unless adjusted by the consumer, advertisers are sorted by APR from lowest to highest. For any advertising partners that do not provide their rate they are listed in advertisement display units at the bottom of the chart. Advertising partners may not pay to improve the frequency priority or prominence of their display. The interest rates, annual percentage rates and other terms advertised here are estimates provided by those advertising partners based on the information you entered above and do not bind. Any lender Monthly payment amounts stated do not include amounts for taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment obligation will be greater if taxes and insurance are included. Although our data partner RateUpdate.com collects the information from the financial institutions themselves, the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed. Rates may change without notice and can change intraday. Some of the information contained in the rate tables including but not limited to special marketing notes is provided directly by the lenders. Please verify the rates and offers before applying for a loan with the financial institution themselves. No rate is binding until locked by a lender.

Lender

APR / Rate

Fees / Points

Payment

NMLS #2562839

4.924%

15-Year Fixed

4.750%

$4,625

Includes 0.875 points for $3,500

Lender Fees: $1,125

$3,112 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2473786

4.934%

15-Year Fixed

4.750%

$4,887

Includes 0.948 points for $3,792

Lender Fees: $1,095

$3,112 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1835285

5.007%

15-Year Fixed

4.875%

$3,500

Includes 0.875 points for $3,500

Lender Fees: $0

$3,138 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1935422

License: 60DBO-109262

5.047%

15-Year Fixed

4.750%

$7,933

Includes 0.662 points for $2,648

Lender Fees: $5,285

$3,112 /mo

Next >

NMLS #324599

License: 324599

5.063%

15-Year Fixed

4.875%

$5,070

Includes 1.000 points for $4,000

Lender Fees: $1,070

$3,138 /mo

Next >

NMLS #757416

5.140%

15-Year Fixed

4.990%

$3,960

Includes 0.990 points for $3,960

Lender Fees: $0

$3,162 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1935422

License: 60DBO-109262

5.300%

5-Year ARM

5.125%

$7,925

Includes 0.660 points for $2,640

Lender Fees: $5,285

$2,178 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2473786

5.361%

5-Year ARM

5.250%

$4,967

Includes 0.968 points for $3,872

Lender Fees: $1,095

$2,209 /mo

Next >

NMLS #6606

5.381%

15-Year Fixed

5.240%

$3,708

Includes 0.927 points for $3,708

Lender Fees: $0

$3,214 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1954591

License: 60DBO-113383

5.402%

15-Year Fixed

5.250%

$4,035

Includes 0.732 points for $2,928

Lender Fees: $1,107

$3,216 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1025894

5.508%

15-Year Fixed

5.375%

$3,480

Includes 0.695 points for $2,780

Lender Fees: $700

$3,242 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1835285

5.578%

5-Year ARM

5.500%

$3,439

Includes 0.735 points for $2,940

Lender Fees: $499

$2,272 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1835285

5.817%

30-Year Fixed

5.750%

$2,927

Includes 0.607 points for $2,428

Lender Fees: $499

$2,335 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1935422

License: 60DBO-109262

5.827%

30-Year Fixed

5.625%

$8,917

Includes 0.908 points for $3,632

Lender Fees: $5,285

$2,303 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2562839

5.847%

5-Year ARM

5.750%

$4,229

Includes 0.776 points for $3,104

Lender Fees: $1,125

$2,335 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2473786

5.861%

30-Year Fixed

5.750%

$4,847

Includes 0.938 points for $3,752

Lender Fees: $1,095

$2,335 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2562839

5.867%

30-Year Fixed

5.750%

$5,125

Includes 1.000 points for $4,000

Lender Fees: $1,125

$2,335 /mo

Next >

NMLS #324599

License: 324599

5.979%

30-Year Fixed

5.875%

$4,570

Includes 0.875 points for $3,500

Lender Fees: $1,070

$2,367 /mo

Next >

NMLS #757416

6.045%

30-Year Fixed

5.990%

$2,376

Includes 0.594 points for $2,376

Lender Fees: $0

$2,396 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1954591

License: 60DBO-113383

6.106%

5-Year ARM

5.990%

$5,035

Includes 0.982 points for $3,928

Lender Fees: $1,107

$2,396 /mo

Next >

NMLS #6606

6.205%

30-Year Fixed

6.125%

$3,420

Includes 0.855 points for $3,420

Lender Fees: $0

$2,431 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1025894

6.208%

30-Year Fixed

6.125%

$3,520

Includes 0.705 points for $2,820

Lender Fees: $700

$2,431 /mo

Next >

NMLS #399799

6.218%

30-Year Fixed

6.125%

$4,111

Includes 0.696 points for $2,784

Lender Fees: $1,327

$2,431 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1954591

License: 60DBO-113383

6.220%

30-Year Fixed

6.125%

$4,083

Includes 0.744 points for $2,976

Lender Fees: $1,107

$2,431 /mo

Next >

NMLS #324599

License: 324599

6.222%

5-Year ARM

6.125%

$4,206

Includes 0.784 points for $3,136

Lender Fees: $1,070

$2,431 /mo

Next >

Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by ICB, a division of Mortgage Research Center, NMLS #1907, Equal Housing Opportunity. Payments do not include taxes and insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and product details.

Lenders peg mortgage rates to 10 year bond yields and 10 year yields are almost at record lows. 10 year yields closed on Friday at 1.81 percent, only 14 basis points from the record low of 1.66 percent set in May 2013. You can view the history of bond yields on the U.S. Department of the U.S. Treasury website: U.S. Treasury Yields.

Forecasts on mortgage rates have been wrong because forecasts on bond yields have been wrong. When the Federal Reserve started winding down their purchases of long term bonds and mortgage backed securities, interest rates were supposed to move higher.

The Federal Reserve stopped their purchases in October 2014 and since that time bond yields have fallen considerably. At the end of October, 10 year bond yields closed at 2.35 percent, 54 basis points higher than the current rate. That is almost a 23 percent drop.

Average 30 year mortgage rates have fallen from 3.98 percent to 3.80 percent, 18 basis points or almost a 5 percent drop. Average mortgage rates haven't dropped as much as bond yields because lenders have been slow to lower rates. This would suggest 30 year rates on average could fall even further, regardless of whether or not bond yields fall further.

Once the Federal Reserve increases rates, banks and other financial institutions will as well. Mortgage rates, other loan rates, CD rates and other deposit rates will all move higher.