Future Direction of Mortgage Rates

For the past decade, since the Financial Crisis and Great Recession, mortgage rates have been at or near historical lows. Fixed long term mortgage rates started moving higher in 2018 as economic growth picked up and long term bond yields moved higher. 30-year mortgage rates were nearing 5.00 percent and 15-year mortgage rates were around 4.30 percent.

This year, mortgage rates started to decline again as trade war and recession fears mounted. Those fears accelerated recently, as 10-year bond yields plummeted around 150 basis points. The decline sent average long term mortgage rates down 100 basis points in a matter of weeks.

Current 30-year mortgage rates are averaging 3.74 percent and 15-year mortgage rates are averaging 3.21 percent. As you can see, current mortgage rates are well below levels from earlier this year and current rates are also at lows for 2019.

Loan Type

Purchase Refinance with Cash out Refinance

State

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District Of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

FICO Score

Superior (780-850) Exceptional (760-779) Excellent (740-759) Very Good (720-739) Good (700-719) Above Average (680-699) Average (660-679) Fair (640-659) Need Improvement (620-639) Poor (350-620)

Loan Amount

$

Points

Up to 0 points Up to 0.5 points Up to 1 points Up to 1.5 points Up to 2 points Up to 2.5 points Up to 3 points

LTV

%

Loan Term

 15-Year Fixed  20-Year Fixed  30-Year Fixed  5-Year ARM  7-Year ARM  10-Year ARM

Show Advertiser Disclosure

The lenders whose rates and other terms appear on this chart are ICB's advertising partners. They provide their rate information to our data partner RateUpdate.com. Unless adjusted by the consumer, advertisers are sorted by APR from lowest to highest. For any advertising partners that do not provide their rate they are listed in advertisement display units at the bottom of the chart. Advertising partners may not pay to improve the frequency priority or prominence of their display. The interest rates, annual percentage rates and other terms advertised here are estimates provided by those advertising partners based on the information you entered above and do not bind. Any lender Monthly payment amounts stated do not include amounts for taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment obligation will be greater if taxes and insurance are included. Although our data partner RateUpdate.com collects the information from the financial institutions themselves, the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed. Rates may change without notice and can change intraday. Some of the information contained in the rate tables including but not limited to special marketing notes is provided directly by the lenders. Please verify the rates and offers before applying for a loan with the financial institution themselves. No rate is binding until locked by a lender.

Lender

APR / Rate

Fees / Points

Payment

NMLS #1835285

5.478%

15-Year Fixed

5.250%

$6,000

Includes 1.000 points for $4,000

Lender Fees: $2,000

$3,216 /mo

Next >

NMLS #401822

5.642%

15-Year Fixed

5.375%

$7,000

Includes 0.750 points for $3,000

Lender Fees: $4,000

$3,242 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1025894

5.667%

15-Year Fixed

5.490%

$4,612

Includes 0.978 points for $3,912

Lender Fees: $700

$3,267 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2059741

5.751%

15-Year Fixed

5.625%

$3,272

Includes 0.818 points for $3,272

Lender Fees: $0

$3,295 /mo

Next >

NMLS #6606

5.890%

15-Year Fixed

5.740%

$3,876

Includes 0.969 points for $3,876

Lender Fees: $0

$3,320 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1835285

6.368%

30-Year Fixed

6.250%

$5,000

Includes 0.750 points for $3,000

Lender Fees: $2,000

$2,463 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1835285

6.377%

5-Year ARM

6.250%

$5,368

Includes 0.842 points for $3,368

Lender Fees: $2,000

$2,463 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2059741

6.583%

30-Year Fixed

6.490%

$3,896

Includes 0.974 points for $3,896

Lender Fees: $0

$2,526 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1025894

6.713%

30-Year Fixed

6.625%

$3,656

Includes 0.739 points for $2,956

Lender Fees: $700

$2,562 /mo

Next >

NMLS #401822

6.770%

30-Year Fixed

6.625%

$5,995

Includes 1.000 points for $4,000

Lender Fees: $1,995

$2,562 /mo

Next >

NMLS #6606

6.834%

30-Year Fixed

6.740%

$3,888

Includes 0.972 points for $3,888

Lender Fees: $0

$2,592 /mo

Next >

NMLS #3030

6.909%

15-Year Fixed

6.750%

$4,000

Includes 1.000 points for $4,000

Lender Fees: $0

$3,540 /mo

Next >

NMLS #3030

7.602%

30-Year Fixed

7.500%

$4,000

Includes 1.000 points for $4,000

Lender Fees: $0

$2,797 /mo

Next >

Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by ICB, a division of Mortgage Research Center, NMLS #1907, Equal Housing Opportunity. Payments do not include taxes and insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and product details.

30-year jumbo mortgage rates were also hovering just below 5.00 percent towards the end of 2018 are now averaging 4.07 percent. 15-year jumbo rates are currently averaging 3.81 percent, down from around 4.65 percent at the start of 2019.

Short term adjustable conforming mortgage rates have also moved lower recently but the declines haven't been as pronounced. Average 5-year adjustable rates started 2019 around 4.00 percent and are currently averaging 3.38 percent.

The ongoing trade war between China and the United States is slowing down economic growth across the globe and is forcing interest rates lower as well. This trade war and the chance of a recession over the next year will prevent mortgage rates from moving much higher from current levels.

If there is a recession in 2020, mortgage rates will hit new all-time lows. Conforming 30-year mortgage rates could fall below 3.00 percent and 15-year conforming rates could fall as low as 2.25 percent. Jumbo mortgage rates would also fall as low as conforming rates.