Low Mortgage Rates Today Probably Drove Existing Home Sales Higher

Recent record low mortgage rates probably helped drive existing home sales higher in April. Existing Home Sales, scheduled to be released by The National Association of Realtors (NAR) at 10:00 AM this morning, probably increased 2.9 percent to a 4.61 million annual rate last month, according to the median forecast of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Current 30 year mortgage rates today are averaging 3.79 percent, a record low, fueling both home purchases and mortgage refinances.

Homes have been and continue to be more affordable then they have been in a generation. A sharp decline in home prices since the housing bubble popped and record low mortgage rates are the driving factors behind affordability.

The NAR's composite quarterly Housing Affordability Index rose to a record high of 205.9 in first quarter of 2012. The index is based on the relationship between median home price, median family income and average mortgage interest rates.

Loan Term
Lender
APR / Rate
Fees / Points
Payment
HomePlus Mortgage
NMLS #78669
5.385%
15-Year Fixed
5.125%
$7,042
Includes 0.656 points for $2,624
Lender Fees: $4,418
$3,190 /mo
Allied Mortgage Group, Inc.
NMLS #1067
5.514%
15-Year Fixed
5.375%
$3,624
Includes 0.906 points for $3,624
Lender Fees: $0
$3,242 /mo
PenFed Credit Union
NMLS #401822
5.516%
15-Year Fixed
5.250%
$7,000
Includes 0.750 points for $3,000
Lender Fees: $4,000
$3,216 /mo
District Lending
NMLS #1835285
5.526%
15-Year Fixed
5.375%
$3,956
Includes 0.989 points for $3,956
Lender Fees: $0
$3,242 /mo
Pure Rate Mortgage
NMLS #2578474
5.551%
15-Year Fixed
5.375%
$4,606
Includes 0.889 points for $3,556
Lender Fees: $1,050
$3,242 /mo
GenNext.Mortgage
NMLS #2326098
License: 60DBO-181478
5.556%
15-Year Fixed
5.375%
$4,909
Includes 0.739 points for $2,956
Lender Fees: $1,953
$3,242 /mo
Bison State Bank
NMLS #757416
5.592%
15-Year Fixed
5.490%
$2,652
Includes 0.663 points for $2,652
Lender Fees: $0
$3,267 /mo
Mutual of Omaha Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS #1025894
5.627%
15-Year Fixed
5.490%
$3,572
Includes 0.718 points for $2,872
Lender Fees: $700
$3,267 /mo
HomePlus Mortgage
NMLS #78669
5.796%
5-Year ARM
5.625%
$7,746
Includes 0.832 points for $3,328
Lender Fees: $4,418
$2,303 /mo
HomePlus Mortgage
NMLS #78669
6.295%
30-Year Fixed
6.125%
$7,454
Includes 0.759 points for $3,036
Lender Fees: $4,418
$2,431 /mo
District Lending
NMLS #1835285
6.344%
30-Year Fixed
6.250%
$4,000
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $0
$2,463 /mo
Pure Rate Mortgage
NMLS #2578474
6.360%
30-Year Fixed
6.250%
$4,650
Includes 0.900 points for $3,600
Lender Fees: $1,050
$2,463 /mo
Bison State Bank
NMLS #757416
6.437%
30-Year Fixed
6.375%
$2,596
Includes 0.649 points for $2,596
Lender Fees: $0
$2,496 /mo
Allied Mortgage Group, Inc.
NMLS #1067
6.451%
30-Year Fixed
6.375%
$3,208
Includes 0.802 points for $3,208
Lender Fees: $0
$2,496 /mo
GenNext.Mortgage
NMLS #2326098
License: 60DBO-181478
6.501%
5-Year ARM
6.375%
$5,501
Includes 0.887 points for $3,548
Lender Fees: $1,953
$2,496 /mo
GenNext.Mortgage
NMLS #2326098
License: 60DBO-181478
6.511%
30-Year Fixed
6.375%
$5,897
Includes 0.986 points for $3,944
Lender Fees: $1,953
$2,496 /mo
Mutual of Omaha Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS #1025894
6.569%
30-Year Fixed
6.490%
$3,296
Includes 0.649 points for $2,596
Lender Fees: $700
$2,526 /mo
District Lending
NMLS #1835285
6.587%
5-Year ARM
6.500%
$3,624
Includes 0.906 points for $3,624
Lender Fees: $0
$2,529 /mo
HSBC Bank USA, N.A.
NMLS #399799
6.595%
30-Year Fixed
6.500%
$4,108
Includes 0.695 points for $2,780
Lender Fees: $1,328
$2,529 /mo
PenFed Credit Union
NMLS #401822
6.620%
30-Year Fixed
6.500%
$4,995
Includes 0.750 points for $3,000
Lender Fees: $1,995
$2,529 /mo
Rocket Mortgage
NMLS #3030
6.764%
15-Year Fixed
6.625%
$3,500
Includes 0.875 points for $3,500
Lender Fees: $0
$3,512 /mo
Rocket Mortgage
NMLS #3030
7.350%
30-Year Fixed
7.250%
$4,000
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $0
$2,729 /mo
Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by ICB, a division of Mortgage Research Center, NMLS #1907, Equal Housing Opportunity. Payments do not include taxes and insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and product details.

Homes are more affordable has the index rises. The NAR has kept records on housing affordability since 19070 and the 205.9 is the first time the quarterly index broke the 200 mark.

If existing homes sales come in stronger then expected that could drive current mortgage rates higher. Investors will take stronger home sales as an indicator that the economy is actually stronger than people believe. This will drive bond yields higher and as a result mortgage rates will also move higher.

Even if mortgage interest rates move higher I don't expect rates to increase by much. 30 year rates will stay under 4.00% for several more months and 15 year rates might possibly break under 3.00%.

 
Author: Brian McKay
May 22nd, 2012

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