Mortgage Rates Forced Lower by QE4 and Global Bond Markets

A fourth round of Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve? Yes, there is another round of easing already happening that is forcing mortgage rates lower but the Federal Reserve doesn't have anything to do with it. The easing comes in the form of lower oil prices.

You have heard about lower oil prices in the news and have seen sharply lower gas prices at the pump. The price per barrel of oil has fallen from over $100 a barrel last summer to $48 a barrel today. The plunge in oil, other commodity prices, and equity markets has forced investors to flee to the safety of U.S. Treasuries.

10 year U.S. Treasury yields, which were forecast to be around 3.00 percent during this stage of the economic recovery, have fallen back under 2.00 percent this month. The decline in Treasury yields has forced 30 year mortgage rates down near the all-time lows of spring 2013.

Loan Type

Purchase Refinance with Cash out Refinance

State

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District Of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

FICO Score

Superior (780-850) Exceptional (760-779) Excellent (740-759) Very Good (720-739) Good (700-719) Above Average (680-699) Average (660-679) Fair (640-659) Need Improvement (620-639) Poor (350-620)

Loan Amount

$

Points

Up to 0 points Up to 0.5 points Up to 1 points Up to 1.5 points Up to 2 points Up to 2.5 points Up to 3 points

LTV

%

Loan Term

 15-Year Fixed  20-Year Fixed  30-Year Fixed  5-Year ARM  7-Year ARM  10-Year ARM

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The lenders whose rates and other terms appear on this chart are ICB's advertising partners. They provide their rate information to our data partner RateUpdate.com. Unless adjusted by the consumer, advertisers are sorted by APR from lowest to highest. For any advertising partners that do not provide their rate they are listed in advertisement display units at the bottom of the chart. Advertising partners may not pay to improve the frequency priority or prominence of their display. The interest rates, annual percentage rates and other terms advertised here are estimates provided by those advertising partners based on the information you entered above and do not bind. Any lender Monthly payment amounts stated do not include amounts for taxes and insurance premiums. The actual payment obligation will be greater if taxes and insurance are included. Although our data partner RateUpdate.com collects the information from the financial institutions themselves, the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed. Rates may change without notice and can change intraday. Some of the information contained in the rate tables including but not limited to special marketing notes is provided directly by the lenders. Please verify the rates and offers before applying for a loan with the financial institution themselves. No rate is binding until locked by a lender.

Lender

APR / Rate

Fees / Points

Payment

NMLS #1835285

5.440%

15-Year Fixed

5.250%

$5,000

Includes 0.750 points for $3,000

Lender Fees: $2,000

$3,216 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2059741

5.606%

15-Year Fixed

5.490%

$3,032

Includes 0.758 points for $3,032

Lender Fees: $0

$3,267 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1025894

5.650%

15-Year Fixed

5.490%

$4,172

Includes 0.868 points for $3,472

Lender Fees: $700

$3,267 /mo

Next >

NMLS #6606

5.773%

15-Year Fixed

5.625%

$3,848

Includes 0.962 points for $3,848

Lender Fees: $0

$3,295 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1835285

6.262%

5-Year ARM

6.125%

$5,860

Includes 0.965 points for $3,860

Lender Fees: $2,000

$2,431 /mo

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NMLS #1835285

6.356%

30-Year Fixed

6.250%

$4,500

Includes 0.625 points for $2,500

Lender Fees: $2,000

$2,463 /mo

Next >

NMLS #2059741

6.569%

30-Year Fixed

6.490%

$3,292

Includes 0.823 points for $3,292

Lender Fees: $0

$2,526 /mo

Next >

NMLS #1025894

6.600%

30-Year Fixed

6.490%

$4,592

Includes 0.973 points for $3,892

Lender Fees: $700

$2,526 /mo

Next >

NMLS #6606

6.714%

30-Year Fixed

6.625%

$3,684

Includes 0.921 points for $3,684

Lender Fees: $0

$2,562 /mo

Next >

NMLS #401822

6.734%

30-Year Fixed

6.625%

$4,495

Includes 0.625 points for $2,500

Lender Fees: $1,995

$2,562 /mo

Next >

NMLS #401822

7.698%

15-Year Fixed

7.375%

$8,000

Includes 1.000 points for $4,000

Lender Fees: $4,000

$3,680 /mo

Next >

Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by ICB, a division of Mortgage Research Center, NMLS #1907, Equal Housing Opportunity. Payments do not include taxes and insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and product details.

10 year bond yields are trading at 1.80 percent and 30 year mortgage rates today are averaging 3.85 percent. About a year ago, 30 year mortgage rates were forecast to be above 5.00 percent by this time. The average 30 year rate is at 3.85 percent but on our rate tables we have lenders quoting 30 year refinance rates as low as 3.25 percent in some states.

There is also another factor at play forcing U.S. bond yields lower - a truly global market for sovereign bonds. 10 year U.S. bonds are only yielding 1.80 percent right now but that is considerably higher than current Japanese and German bond yields. 10 year Japanese bond yields are at 0.25 percent and 10 year German bonds are yielding 0.41 percent.

Investors are flocking to the higher yields U.S. bonds offered and a strong dollar is enhancing their returns. Investors buying bonds drive bond prices higher and as a result, drive yields lower. Lenders peg mortgage rates to bond yields so mortgage rates also move lower.

History has taught us that eventually the Fed will take the punch bowl away by increasing the fed funds rate. The likelihood of this happening sometime is year is almost certain but the question is when. We look for an increase in the fed funds rate sometime in the summer of 2015.

A higher fed funds rate will force bank deposit rates, bond yields and mortgage rates higher. Be sure to position your finances for the upcoming increase in rates in 2015.