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Mortgage Rates Jump Sharply Higher this Week

Mortgage rates are sharply higher this week, following U.S. Treasury yields higher. Average 30 year mortgage rates increased almost 30 basis points since the election. 30 year rates are up from 3.49 percent last week before the election to 3.77 percent today.   

During the same time period, 10 year Treasury yields have risen from 1.80 percent to 2.10 percent. Why the sharp increase in mortgage rates and Treasury yields the past week? Donald Trump won the election. Trump has called for lowering taxes and investing about a trillion dollars in the nation's crumbling infrastructure.

If you lower taxes and spend more, the money has to come from somewhere. The most likely source will be issuing more public debt. If the government issues a lot more debt, the most likely scenario will be investors demanding a higher yield on their investment in U.S. Treasuries.

Loan Term
Lender
APR / Rate
Fees / Points
Payment
Future First Lending
NMLS #2126430
4.764%
15-Year Fixed
4.625%
$3,695
Includes 0.625 points for $2,500
Lender Fees: $1,195
$3,086 /mo
Home Simply
NMLS #2473786
4.775%
15-Year Fixed
4.625%
$4,015
Includes 0.730 points for $2,920
Lender Fees: $1,095
$3,086 /mo
Different Mortgage
NMLS #324599
License: 324599
4.812%
15-Year Fixed
4.625%
$5,070
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $1,070
$3,086 /mo
Mutual of Omaha Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS #1025894
4.874%
15-Year Fixed
4.750%
$3,308
Includes 0.827 points for $3,308
Lender Fees: $0
$3,112 /mo
Bison State Bank
NMLS #757416
4.898%
15-Year Fixed
4.750%
$3,944
Includes 0.986 points for $3,944
Lender Fees: $0
$3,112 /mo
Blue Sky Financial, LLC
NMLS #1954591
License: 60DBO-113383
4.918%
15-Year Fixed
4.750%
$4,539
Includes 0.858 points for $3,432
Lender Fees: $1,107
$3,112 /mo
Farmers Bank of Kansas City
NMLS #613839
4.953%
15-Year Fixed
4.750%
$5,407
Includes 0.880 points for $3,520
Lender Fees: $1,887
$3,112 /mo
Home Simply
NMLS #2473786
4.972%
5-Year ARM
4.875%
$4,451
Includes 0.839 points for $3,356
Lender Fees: $1,095
$2,117 /mo
Allied Mortgage Group, Inc.
NMLS #1067
4.978%
15-Year Fixed
4.875%
$2,732
Includes 0.683 points for $2,732
Lender Fees: $0
$3,138 /mo
Future First Lending
NMLS #2126430
4.983%
5-Year ARM
4.875%
$4,951
Includes 0.939 points for $3,756
Lender Fees: $1,195
$2,117 /mo
Zoom Loans
NMLS #1312186
5.007%
15-Year Fixed
4.875%
$3,500
Includes 0.875 points for $3,500
Lender Fees: $0
$3,138 /mo
New American Funding, LLC.
NMLS #6606
5.260%
15-Year Fixed
5.125%
$3,548
Includes 0.887 points for $3,548
Lender Fees: $0
$3,190 /mo
Zoom Loans
NMLS #1312186
5.336%
5-Year ARM
5.250%
$3,868
Includes 0.967 points for $3,868
Lender Fees: $0
$2,209 /mo
Blue Sky Financial, LLC
NMLS #1954591
License: 60DBO-113383
5.473%
5-Year ARM
5.375%
$4,423
Includes 0.829 points for $3,316
Lender Fees: $1,107
$2,240 /mo
Different Mortgage
NMLS #324599
License: 324599
5.483%
5-Year ARM
5.375%
$4,886
Includes 0.954 points for $3,816
Lender Fees: $1,070
$2,240 /mo
Future First Lending
NMLS #2126430
5.583%
30-Year Fixed
5.500%
$3,695
Includes 0.625 points for $2,500
Lender Fees: $1,195
$2,272 /mo
Home Simply
NMLS #2473786
5.587%
30-Year Fixed
5.490%
$4,295
Includes 0.800 points for $3,200
Lender Fees: $1,095
$2,269 /mo
Different Mortgage
NMLS #324599
License: 324599
5.613%
30-Year Fixed
5.500%
$5,070
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $1,070
$2,272 /mo
Mutual of Omaha Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS #1025894
5.682%
30-Year Fixed
5.625%
$2,508
Includes 0.627 points for $2,508
Lender Fees: $0
$2,303 /mo
Allied Mortgage Group, Inc.
NMLS #1067
5.686%
30-Year Fixed
5.625%
$2,684
Includes 0.671 points for $2,684
Lender Fees: $0
$2,303 /mo
Bison State Bank
NMLS #757416
5.696%
30-Year Fixed
5.625%
$3,120
Includes 0.780 points for $3,120
Lender Fees: $0
$2,303 /mo
Farmers Bank of Kansas City
NMLS #613839
5.726%
30-Year Fixed
5.625%
$4,447
Includes 0.640 points for $2,560
Lender Fees: $1,887
$2,303 /mo
Zoom Loans
NMLS #1312186
5.842%
30-Year Fixed
5.750%
$4,000
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $0
$2,335 /mo
Blue Sky Financial, LLC
NMLS #1954591
License: 60DBO-113383
5.854%
30-Year Fixed
5.750%
$4,619
Includes 0.878 points for $3,512
Lender Fees: $1,107
$2,335 /mo
New American Funding, LLC.
NMLS #6606
5.958%
30-Year Fixed
5.875%
$3,592
Includes 0.898 points for $3,592
Lender Fees: $0
$2,367 /mo
HSBC Bank USA, N.A.
NMLS #399799
5.970%
30-Year Fixed
5.875%
$4,284
Includes 0.739 points for $2,956
Lender Fees: $1,328
$2,367 /mo
Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by Mortgage Research Center, NMLS #1907, Equal Housing Opportunity. Payments do not include taxes and insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and product details.

Lowering taxes, issuing more public debt, and spending more are all inflationary policies. These policies will all contribute to higher Treasury yields, which will send mortgage rates higher. Whether or not these scenarios play out in the coming months and years remains to be seen.

In all likelihood, we won't see Treasury yields and mortgage rates as low as they have been. The only way yields and rates will fall towards the recent record lows would be if the economy fell into another recession.

Treasury yields and mortgage rates move in the same direction. Right now, both are moving sharply higher. You can view the relationship between Treasury yields and mortgage rates for the past 10 years in the FRED Chart below.

 

 Courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

 
Author: Brian McKay
November 14th, 2016

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