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Mortgage Rates – Will Rates Head Higher in 2011?

Mortgage rates are low and have been low for over a year now. The current national average 30 year mortgage rate is 4.77% as reported by MonitorBankRates.com. The Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting 30 year mortgage rates to hit 5.6% by the fourth quarter of 2011 and 6.0% by the end of 2.012.

Recent economic news suggests that 30 year rates might not even hit 5.6% by the fourth quarter of this year. First quarter advance GDP numbers came in at 1.8%, which is a slower rate of growth than the fourth quarter of last year. 

In the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recent statement on economic policy, the Fed said the economy is gradually improving but the housing market is still depressed. The Fed also said longer term inflation expectations are stable so inflation still isn't a concern.

Loan Term
Lender
APR / Rate
Fees / Points
Payment
Home Simply
NMLS #2473786
4.894%
15-Year Fixed
4.750%
$3,839
Includes 0.686 points for $2,744
Lender Fees: $1,095
$3,112 /mo
Bison State Bank
NMLS #757416
5.005%
15-Year Fixed
4.875%
$3,436
Includes 0.859 points for $3,436
Lender Fees: $0
$3,138 /mo
Home Simply
NMLS #2473786
5.104%
5-Year ARM
5.000%
$4,755
Includes 0.915 points for $3,660
Lender Fees: $1,095
$2,148 /mo
Filo Mortgage, L.L.C.
NMLS #1928741
5.106%
15-Year Fixed
4.990%
$3,052
Includes 0.763 points for $3,052
Lender Fees: $0
$3,162 /mo
New American Funding, LLC.
NMLS #6606
5.398%
15-Year Fixed
5.250%
$3,884
Includes 0.971 points for $3,884
Lender Fees: $0
$3,216 /mo
Home Simply
NMLS #2473786
5.719%
30-Year Fixed
5.625%
$4,127
Includes 0.758 points for $3,032
Lender Fees: $1,095
$2,303 /mo
Bison State Bank
NMLS #757416
5.828%
30-Year Fixed
5.750%
$3,404
Includes 0.851 points for $3,404
Lender Fees: $0
$2,335 /mo
Filo Mortgage, L.L.C.
NMLS #1928741
5.923%
30-Year Fixed
5.875%
$2,092
Includes 0.523 points for $2,092
Lender Fees: $0
$2,367 /mo
HSBC Bank USA, N.A.
NMLS #399799
6.086%
30-Year Fixed
6.000%
$3,831
Includes 0.626 points for $2,504
Lender Fees: $1,327
$2,399 /mo
New American Funding, LLC.
NMLS #6606
6.091%
30-Year Fixed
6.000%
$3,904
Includes 0.976 points for $3,904
Lender Fees: $0
$2,399 /mo
Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by Mortgage Research Center, NMLS #1907, Equal Housing Opportunity. Payments do not include taxes and insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and product details.

The Fed Funds rate was left unchanged at zero percent to one quarter percent and they expect to keep the rate at an exceptionally low levels for an extended period of time.

A slow expanding economy, low inflation and high unemployment will all keep interest rates and mortgage rates low in 2011 and possibly into 2012. Even if the economy picks up steam and inflation becomes a concern 30 year conforming rates won't hit 5.50 percent this year. A more likely scenario is we will see 30 year rates stay under 5.00 percent for the rest of 2011.

 
Author: Brian McKay
May 1st, 2011

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