Mortgage Rates – Will Rates Head Higher in 2011?

Mortgage rates are low and have been low for over a year now. The current national average 30 year mortgage rate is 4.77% as reported by MonitorBankRates.com. The Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting 30 year mortgage rates to hit 5.6% by the fourth quarter of 2011 and 6.0% by the end of 2.012.

Recent economic news suggests that 30 year rates might not even hit 5.6% by the fourth quarter of this year. First quarter advance GDP numbers came in at 1.8%, which is a slower rate of growth than the fourth quarter of last year. 

In the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recent statement on economic policy, the Fed said the economy is gradually improving but the housing market is still depressed. The Fed also said longer term inflation expectations are stable so inflation still isn't a concern.

Loan Term
Lender
APR / Rate
Fees / Points
Payment
HomePlus Mortgage
NMLS #78669
5.392%
15-Year Fixed
5.125%
$7,222
Includes 0.701 points for $2,804
Lender Fees: $4,418
$3,190 /mo
YouFi Home Loans Inc.
NMLS #2641203
5.492%
15-Year Fixed
5.375%
$3,056
Includes 0.764 points for $3,056
Lender Fees: $0
$3,242 /mo
Loansteady
NMLS #1701910
5.547%
15-Year Fixed
5.375%
$4,490
Includes 0.750 points for $3,000
Lender Fees: $1,490
$3,242 /mo
PenFed Credit Union
NMLS #401822
5.554%
15-Year Fixed
5.250%
$8,000
Includes 1.000 points for $4,000
Lender Fees: $4,000
$3,216 /mo
Direct Home Lending
NMLS #274058
5.556%
15-Year Fixed
5.375%
$4,746
Includes 0.664 points for $2,656
Lender Fees: $2,090
$3,242 /mo
Bison State Bank
NMLS #757416
5.612%
15-Year Fixed
5.500%
$2,908
Includes 0.727 points for $2,908
Lender Fees: $0
$3,269 /mo
Allied Mortgage Group, Inc.
NMLS #1067
5.642%
15-Year Fixed
5.490%
$3,944
Includes 0.986 points for $3,944
Lender Fees: $0
$3,267 /mo
Mutual of Omaha Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS #1025894
5.667%
15-Year Fixed
5.490%
$4,600
Includes 0.975 points for $3,900
Lender Fees: $700
$3,267 /mo
Barrett Financial
NMLS #181106
License: Licensed
5.741%
15-Year Fixed
5.625%
$2,995
Includes 0.500 points for $2,000
Lender Fees: $995
$3,295 /mo
HomePlus Mortgage
NMLS #78669
6.178%
5-Year ARM
6.000%
$7,842
Includes 0.856 points for $3,424
Lender Fees: $4,418
$2,399 /mo
HomePlus Mortgage
NMLS #78669
6.523%
30-Year Fixed
6.375%
$6,398
Includes 0.495 points for $1,980
Lender Fees: $4,418
$2,496 /mo
DECO Mortgage
NMLS #2561451
6.591%
30-Year Fixed
6.490%
$4,287
Includes 0.573 points for $2,292
Lender Fees: $1,995
$2,526 /mo
Allied Mortgage Group, Inc.
NMLS #1067
6.594%
30-Year Fixed
6.500%
$3,944
Includes 0.986 points for $3,944
Lender Fees: $0
$2,529 /mo
Bison State Bank
NMLS #757416
6.596%
30-Year Fixed
6.500%
$3,984
Includes 0.996 points for $3,984
Lender Fees: $0
$2,529 /mo
Direct Home Lending
NMLS #274058
6.638%
5-Year ARM
6.500%
$5,766
Includes 0.919 points for $3,676
Lender Fees: $2,090
$2,529 /mo
YouFi Home Loans Inc.
NMLS #2641203
6.682%
30-Year Fixed
6.625%
$2,352
Includes 0.588 points for $2,352
Lender Fees: $0
$2,562 /mo
Barrett Financial
NMLS #181106
License: Licensed
6.697%
30-Year Fixed
6.625%
$2,995
Includes 0.500 points for $2,000
Lender Fees: $995
$2,562 /mo
Mutual of Omaha Mortgage, Inc.
NMLS #1025894
6.720%
30-Year Fixed
6.625%
$3,916
Includes 0.804 points for $3,216
Lender Fees: $700
$2,562 /mo
Direct Home Lending
NMLS #274058
6.742%
30-Year Fixed
6.625%
$4,842
Includes 0.688 points for $2,752
Lender Fees: $2,090
$2,562 /mo
Loansteady
NMLS #1701910
6.786%
30-Year Fixed
6.750%
$1,490
Includes 0.000 points for $0
Lender Fees: $1,490
$2,595 /mo
HSBC Bank USA, N.A.
NMLS #399799
6.848%
30-Year Fixed
6.750%
$4,164
Includes 0.709 points for $2,836
Lender Fees: $1,328
$2,595 /mo
Rocket Mortgage
NMLS #3030
6.869%
15-Year Fixed
6.750%
$3,000
Includes 0.750 points for $3,000
Lender Fees: $0
$3,540 /mo
PenFed Credit Union
NMLS #401822
6.884%
30-Year Fixed
6.750%
$5,495
Includes 0.875 points for $3,500
Lender Fees: $1,995
$2,595 /mo
Rocket Mortgage
NMLS #3030
7.589%
30-Year Fixed
7.500%
$3,500
Includes 0.875 points for $3,500
Lender Fees: $0
$2,797 /mo
Rate data provided by RateUpdate.com. Displayed by ICB, a division of Mortgage Research Center, NMLS #1907, Equal Housing Opportunity. Payments do not include taxes and insurance premiums. Actual payments will be greater with taxes and insurance included. Rate and product details.

The Fed Funds rate was left unchanged at zero percent to one quarter percent and they expect to keep the rate at an exceptionally low levels for an extended period of time.

A slow expanding economy, low inflation and high unemployment will all keep interest rates and mortgage rates low in 2011 and possibly into 2012. Even if the economy picks up steam and inflation becomes a concern 30 year conforming rates won't hit 5.50 percent this year. A more likely scenario is we will see 30 year rates stay under 5.00 percent for the rest of 2011.

 
Author: Brian McKay
May 1st, 2011

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